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Matteo Marsili |
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ICTP Trieste |
Abstract
Large scale changes in the structure of the economy or financial
markets, such as the current economic crisis, have their origin in the
behavioral rules which agents follow. In some cases, rules have a self-
reinforcing effect: the more agents adopt a rule, the more it becomes
reasonable for others to accept it. This promotes such rules to social
norms. Example include trusting counter-parties in financial
transactions, not performing independent risk analysis and over-
reliance on credit rating.
However, as rules develop and spread, becoming the norm, they may have
consequences at the aggregate level which are not anticipated by the
individuals. In particular, the conditions under which rules self-
reinforce may gradually erode, as macro-economic conditions
deteriorate, thus provoking sharp transitions whereby most agents
suddenly change their behavior. I will argue that
the liquidity crisis in credit derivative markets and in the interbank
market can indeed be traced back to these effects. This provides hints
on policy measures and on the regulation of financial markets.