CLAUDIO TEBALDI
Università di Verona
A multifractal scaling picture of avalanche dynamics that finds
application
in Risk Management.
Intermittent avalanches have been found to characterize
dynamical
critical phenomena in many systems which have been termed
Self Organized Critical. So far, most theoretical and numerical
attempts
to characterize the probability distributions
of various avalanche quantities relied on the assumption of
standard
finite size scaling (FSS). In the present talk we show that a
crossed
statistical analysis, applied to the case of the Bak Tang
Wiesenfeld
model of sandpiles and inspired by the multifractal scaling
picture,
unveils the key role played by the fluctuating avalanche fractal
dimension
in the description of such scaling phenomena and solves some
recently
raised controversies about universality in the context of
sandpile models.
The strong analogies between the concept of "trading time" in
the financial
literature and the avalanche dynamics suggests to apply the same
technique,
to the analysis of the MIB30 stock
index fluctuations. Remarkably, it is shown to provide a useful
and efficient
method to discuss the effects of non linear time dynamics on
risk evaluation.